Events are unfolding fast in both the Tory and Labour Parties in the aftermath of the EU referendum result.
The Tories are about to enter a leadership contest. Divided already by the referendum campaign, they will now prolong the division while they find a new Leader. While the “leave” camp were content for Boris Johnson to lead their campaign in order to eclipse Nigel Farage, the full horror of having him run the Tory Party – and, horror of horrors, the country – are too much to bear. The Tory “remain” camp are desperately searching for a “stop Boris” candidate.
So far, Hone Secretary Thersea May is reported to have agreed to stand, as has Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt. Three relative unknowns have come forward – Andrea Leadsom, Nicky Hunt and Steven Crabb. The usual reason why unknowns come forward is to gather votes for on a personal basis which they can then transfer on to their preferred leading runner once they are eliminated from the count.
Tory MPs will choose, from those MPs who are nominated, a shortlist of two, with party members then choosing which one will be the new Leader and Prime Minister. MPs will have one eye on who will be the best Leader, and another eye on who offers them the best chance of retaining their own seat at the next General Election. MPs will find it impossible to keep Boris Johnson off the shortlist, and party members are very likely to back him too. MPs and ordinary members will be aware that, with the anti-EU line in the ascendency in the country, their General Election chances are much better with a Brexit Leader who can eclipse UKIP than with a “remain” supporter in charge, even a quiet one.
Mystery surrounds the whereabouts of George Osborne – geographically and politically. He has hardly commented since the referendum result, prompting speculation that he might ditch his loyalty to Cameron (which it’s hardly worth him keeping) and back Boris, in the hope of continuing his own parliamentary career. Boris may even be grateful: the bonkers Brexiters do not include many competent people who will be able to form a credible Cabinet to run the country and the exit negotiations.
So, just as the Tory Party is embarking on a period of inevitable weakness, news comes that Hilary Benn is the latest Labour MP to adopt the lemming approach and attack his own Party rather than the opposition.
The bizarre arrangement which led to the Electoral Commission choosing the two official referendum campaigns ensured that, effectively, both were run by Tories. There were around a dozen Labour MPs who tried to play a leading role in the “exit” campaign. The rest campaigned their socks off for a “remain vote” – as did Jeremy Corbyn, who travelled the country campaigning.
These efforts resulted in Labour delivering around two thirds of its supporters into the “remain” camp. On the other hand, the Cameron-Tories were unable to deliver anything like that number of their own supporters for the official “remain” line. It is ridiculous to blame Jeremy Corbyn for losing a vote which the Tories called and could not persuade their members to back.
We have already speculated on why Margaret Hodge, MP for Barking, in the only London Borough to vote “leave”, might want to attack her own party rather than go on the offensive against the Tories*. Now, Jeremy Corbyn has had to sack Hilary Benn MP as Foreign Secretary for apparently encouraging Shadow Cabinet members to back Hodge’s “no confidence” resolution and to agree to resign if Corbyn does not go – leaving him without a Shadow Cabinet.
Already all the major unions have called for an end to the in-fighting, loyalty to the elected Leader and attention to turn to fighting the Tories (what’s left of them, before they have time to regroup, Benn’s behaviour will be considered an outrage by most Labour Party members and many of its supporters. The danger for Benn is that if he succeeds, in some bureaucratic fashion, to push Corbyn out, the Labour Party will be split in two. Corbyn has 250,000 supporters – more than all the other leadership candidates in the last contest. Benn, who did not stand last time round, may be able to unite a good number of MPs and even fairly large numbers of Labour Party members. What he cannot do is fashion the Labour Party into an organisation which can win the next General Election. A Boris Government will fight for re-election on a right wing ticket and can only be successfully opposed by mobilising support for a clear alternative – not a pale imitation.
•It is now even more important than before that you click this link and sign the petition and share it: https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/a-vote-of-confidence-in-jeremy-corbyn-after-brexit?source=twitter-share-button
•You can also send emails to Hilary Benn on: hilary.benn.mp@parliament.uk
*What is Margaret Hodge up to? Read more here: http://eastlondonnews.co.uk/hodge-attacks-corbyn-poor-little-rich-girl/
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