AS EXPECTED – not least by him – Nigel Farage, Leader of Reform UK, has won the Clacton by-election. The by-election was called because the previous MP for Clacton, Nigel Farage, resigned and then stood again. It was less a by-election and more of a stunt.
Why did Farage resign? The Parliamentary Commissioner is investigating various allegations that Nigel Farage MP did not declare gifts of money which should have been declared. Farage has said that he has done nothing wrong. The investigation continued. Farage then pulled his stunt in an attempt to take the investigation out of Parliament and to the public. The reasoning seems to be that if he was returned to Parliament, investigators should shut up and observe the will of the people. The major political parties did not field candidates in the by-election, making it clear that this was a stunt, not a popular tribunal on whether Farage observed the law. Now that Farage has won, we are back to where we started, and the parliamentary investigation will resume.
Results At the General Election, Farage won 21,225 votes (46.2%), on a turnout of 45,958 (58%). At this by-election, he won 22,239 votes (63.3%) on a turnout of 35,111 (44.37%).
The lack of participation from the mainstream parties has meant that a number of voters have not expressed their view. In that sense, this is not a vindication of Farage’s stance over whether he has broken parliamentary rules – or even the law – in respect of the financial donations he has received. The by-election was not a debate on the rules or on Farage’s actions, so it is not a verdict on the allegations. Having said which, we have to acknowledge that Farage’s vote has stayed solid. His voters have come out for him and a few more voters were won over.
Other candidates
The by-election attracted a record number of independent and joke candidates. The leading joke candidate was Count Binface. His 9,455 votes (nearly 100 times the number of votes he won in the Makerfield by-election) looks impressive, but there were nearly 25,000 votes cast for mainstream parties other than Reform UK in the 2024 General Election. Presuming that none of the voters who were committed to other mainstream voters in 2024 switched over and voted for Farage this time (though a few of them may have done so), Binface picked up around 40% of the votes that were available. Binface expressed his delight at the result immediately after it was declared, but this vote is no evidence that he will have a parliamentary career any time soon. It is further evidence that even in the most favourable conditions, fringe candidates cannot win: they are a joke, not a movement. Though British voters have a sense of humour, they want politicians representing them in the House of Commons.
Eleven candidates won 100 votes or more. In third place was the Region EU candidate, with 492 votes, which probably came largely from the Lib-Dems. Laurence Fox, standing as Reclaim, won 347 probably extreme right wing votes. The SDP won 256 votes. The others were independent candidates – by name or nature. None of these votes are serious or indicative of any view or trend.
Twenty-one candidates won fewer than 100 votes – from 65 to 7. Again, they are a job lot of independents, some standing under a joke or irrelevant party name. Tower Hamlets voters will be interested to see that Andy Erlam, one of the four petitioners who brought a complaint about the 2014 mayoral election in Tower Hamlets, was among the candidates. That complaint led to Lutfur Rahman being removed from office (until he stood again in 2022, and was resoundingly re-elected). Mr Erlam clocked up 44 votes. In 2022, Lutfur Rahman won over 40,000 votes.
What does Farage say?
Nothing. Farage did not turn up at the Count. He claimed that this was on police advice, as there was a credible threat to his security at the count. The police swiftly denied that they had advised any candidate not to attend the count. The Reform story then changed, saying that there was a plan to disrupt the count, rather than attack Farage. It may well be the case that the many joke candidates were planning some sort of verbal protest against Farage during the declaration or his speech. Farage said he did not want to be demeaned by this sort of action. He had been due to give a speech mid-morning, but cancelled it without explanation. That man’s had media training.
Where now? In one way Farage has won. He has shown that he has a reliable vote. In 2024, the Conservatives were in second place with 12,820 votes. The Tories are not generally seeing an increase in their popularity, and there’s no real reason to vote Tory rather than Reform in Clacton. Labour came third, on 7,448. Their candidate has said, on social media, that he was called away from the campaign to work in more marginal seats during the General Election campaign. That still leaves Labour with a mammoth task if it wants to beat Farage at the next General Election: it would have to take around 8,000 votes from Farage. It is fair enough to say that Labour has to take on Reform – but this is a big ask in Clacton. Not only do the voters believe in Reform’s national-socialist, ultra-right policies, but they also know that they can make a difference by backing Farage. They feel their power when they vote Farage, and they will coalesce to do so when he claims that the establishment is out to get him.
Andy Burnham and the Labour Party are probably the only force that can stop Reform at the next General Election. That requires Burnham not only to put pro-working class policies into operation, but also to rebuild the Party. It needs campaigners, electoral workers and candidates. He should start by inviting those bureaucratically thrown out of Labour in the Great Starmer Ideological Purge to return. The campaign should not concentrate on attacking Farage – and turning him into a political martyr. It needs to be on the streets in constituencies which have Reform MPs or councillors, or could do. Burnham has already found some banana skins on the road to better policies. He had better not mess up the job of rescuing the Labour Party.
●Read more about it: Farage shirks responsibility: poor old Clacton With Burnham in No. 10, is Labour coming home?