US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has hinted that the US may be close to signing a peace deal with Iran. Rubio was speaking at a press conference in New Delhi – where he was bombarded with questions about the war.
A peace plan is now their preferred way out of this costly war – but is agreement really near, or is it just US wishful thinking. Draft peace plans have been produced by both sides over the last several weeks, with only some of them being made public. Most have been greeted by the other side saying they cannot possibly agree. It is hard to see how both sides could possibly have compromised sufficiently to have arrived at a plan now which is broadly acceptable to both parties.
If an agreement is close, it will have come for two reasons. •First, both parties will have found fudges to get around the fact that they cannot agree on each other’s bottom lines. •Second, both parties are under pressure from allies to find a deal and get this war over with.
US President Donald Trump is facing modest domestic opposition over his war – which is unwelcome as campaigning is already underway for the “mid-term” elections in November. He needs to find a way to emerge victorious in the eyes of his supporters, but there are two reasons why he is struggling.
•First, the US wants to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons. The USA was party to an agreement signed by President Obama which included agreement from Iran not to develop nuclear weapons – and to allow international inspectors to observe Iranian facilities to check Iran was keeping to the agreement. Trump withdrew from that agreement in 2018. Arriving at an agreement which is essentially the same as Obama’s agreement – and echoes Iran’s statements, issued before and after the attack, that it did not intend to develop nuclear weapons – would leave Trump open to people asking what the point of the war was.
Trump has hinted that part of his agreement will be that the USA (or, in some variants, some other country) will take Iran’s enriched uranium, material which could be further developed to fuel a nuclear weapon, out of the country. That would be a complex process: it’s not like just cleaning up a bit of flytipping. That could be good for Trump, as it may be so difficult that Iran could compromise and agree to it, knowing it is unlikely to happen. However, to date Iran’s comments have been that it wants to hang on to its own uranium.
•Second, the US wants to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz is recognised as international waters, open to all marine traffic. Trump sent ships there, which he claimed were going to ensure safe passage, but that didn’t work out at all – so he needs to negotiate on this. Trump has seen that the continued closure of the Strait is harming the global economy, which is another pressure on him to find a peace agreement. The Strait of Hormuz was, of course, open before Trump started his war. Again, getting the Strait open again would leave people questioning the point of the war – in terms of lives lost and the massive cost.
The unknown factor here is what Israel makes of it all. It was very much behind the war – and did a lot of the bombing. Israel has long wanted Iran disarmed: we don’t know if this US/Israel attack has disarmed Iran sufficiently for Israel to be satisfied.
Israel regards the neutralising of Iran as including eradicating the Iran-supported Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. It has bombed the hell out of southern Lebanon – driving the population out and destroying homes, just as it did in Gaza to prevent any chance of return. That has not stopped: just today (24th May) Israel has ordered the people of another ten villages in south Lebanon to leave their homes.
Israel has bombed targets in Beirut too. It is hard to believe there is anything left of Hezbollah to mount an attack on Israel any more – though it is likely that Israel’s actions have radicalised a new generation of young Lebanese, who resent being forcibly removed from their homes.
The big question for the Iranian people is who will pay for the damage the US and Israel have done to the infrastructure of their country. Trump is unlikely to be offering reparations. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted this morning that there had been significant progress in US/Iranian negotiations and President Trump would probably make an announcement later today. The world is waiting for Trump to conclude his reckless adventure.
●Read more about it: On-off talks are off again as Trump withdraws Pirate Trump opts for Gunboat Diplomacy