IT’S NOT going so well for US President Donald Trump. His military attack on Iran did not lead to Iran capitulating, and he doesn’t know what to do about it. And as mid-term elections loom, his popularity is taking a tumble.
For some time Trump has been threatening to resume bombing Iran – expressed in colourful language such as “they won’t know what has hit them”, and “I’ll drive them back to the Stone Age”. The rhetoric has not moved Iran, and Trump has had to keep claiming he is on the edge of a breakthrough and will keep the ceasefire going for a few more days.
Even Trump must have realised by now that the repeat cycle of threats and withdrawal is not working – but that hasn’t stopped him doing it again. Yesterday he announced that he had planned to resume military action today, 19th May, but was holding off because his “allies” in the Gulf had asked him to do so. The Gulf states wanted him to hang on because… Iran was about to agree a “deal” that the USA could accept. Iran responded by saying that the USA had made another miscalculation.
A big problem for Trump, which he didn’t have before he bombed Iran, is that Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz – and 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas used to come through the Strait. That fuel is now held up. Reserves in the west are running dry and although some western states have made some preparations for an oil shortage, they are way short of being able to cope.
The oil blockade has brought one benefit to the USA, which can sell its own oil for higher prices, increasing its profits. It is not only oil that is being held up, though. Fertiliser is also caught in the blockade, and this will ultimately affect US crop yields and, therefore, food prices. Trump sent military vessels to open the Strait – it hasn’t worked.
Iran and the Gulf States are not the only audience that is finding Trump hard going. A poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena found that nearly two thirds of US voters (64%) believe the US should not have started the war with Iran. Worse, dissatisfaction is growing with Trump’s performance on domestic policy. Only 37% of voters, according to the same poll, approve of Trump’s performance as president.
The dwindling support for Trump is making his fellow Republicans exasperated as they head towards the mid-term elections in candidates November. It’s not that the Democrats present a potentially popular alternative to Trump, but if the shine wears off Trump, Republican candidates will find it hard to get voters to come out.
●Read more about it: On-off talks are off again as Trump withdraws Has Trump crashed the world economy?