WE WONDERED what US President Donald Trump meant when he said a peace agreement with Iran was near. It turns out that what he meant was that the USA was going to return to military action.
•Events over the last few days have gone something like this.
•US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted that a peace agreement was imminent and that the US President would probably announce it later that day, Sunday.
•US President Donald Trump said that US negotiators should not rush the negotiations.
•Rubio said that the President would probably announce an agreement on Monday.
•Later on Monday, US forces carried out air strikes on a naval base near Bandar Abbas, in southern Iran. It said that it was targeting Iranian missile sites and ships that were trying to place mines in the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (Centcom) issued a statement saying that the military action was taken in “self-defence”. Capt. Tim Hawkins, speaking for Centcom, explained that, “US Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire.”
•On Tuesday, Rubio said that a peace agreement was still possible, but that it had to be a “good deal”. If Iran doesn’t agree to US demands – and they haven’t done this so far – it is hard to see how a “good deal” could be struck.
The problem seems to have been – though the USA has not admitted it – that US negotiators could not get Iran to agree to surrendering its store of enriched uranium. It had come close to agreeing to stop preventing ships going through the Strait of Hormuz – but it wanted at least some sanctions lifted before it finally agreed that point. Recent reports suggest that Iran had asked for $24 billion in frozen assets to be returned to it.
That left Trump without any significant gains from the military action – at a time when support from US voters for him and his war are falling. There are reports that he tried to get Arab states in the Gulf to agree to closer ties with Israel, hoping that this would make Israel feel safer and therefore more inclined to accept the end of military action against Iraq. There are reports that the Arab states present during a conference call during which Trump put this forward sat in stunned silence, leaving Trump checking whether the call had gone down.
It turned out that the peace agreement Rubio said was coming was little more than a Memorandum of Understanding – a dozen or so points on a single sheet of paper, most of them identifying issues that would be discussed later. The Memorandum also extended the formal ceasefire by 60 days.
With no formal agreement or Memorandum being agreed, the USA resumed the bombing. Iran responded by claiming that it had fired at a fighter jet and two drones – one of which was downed. It claimed that it had a right to retaliate against the USA violating the ceasefire.
The USA is not the only country re-working the understanding of the term “ceasefire”. When Israel agreed a ceasefire with Lebanon, they went on to say that this excluded Israeli attacks on Hezbollah in… Lebanon. Israel has now announced that it is now going to intensify these attacks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said yesterday, 25th May, that Israel is at war with Hezbollah and the Israeli military will “deal them a crushing blow” – which sounds very much like what Trump promised to do to Iran.
Trump may or may not realise that he is fast running out of options in the Middle East – just when he wanted hostilities to end so that he could move on to Cuba. The effects of his actions on the global economy are beginning to be felt, as stored fuel is running out and cannot be replenished – and shares fall. He doesn’t have long to decide.
●Read more about it: On-off talks are off again as Trump withdraws Israel & Lebanon agree ceasefire and head for talks