IT’S ANOTHER plan that is going nowhere. The Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza conflict, also known as the Gaza Peace Plan (GPP), signed by Israel and Hamas but brokered by US President Donald Trump, is stuck in political stalemate.
That leaves some two million people to continuing suffering in Gaza, which may continue until key elections in the USA and Israel this autumn.
Israel has always been clear that the ceasefire which the GPP was supposed to bring about did not apply to it, and it would continue military operations against potential terrorists. As Israel sees all Palestinians as potential terrorists, that amounted to justifying attacks on everyone in Gaza. An estimated 1,200 Palestinians in what remains of Gaza have been killed by Israeli military activity since the Memorandum was signed.
The GPP called for Hamas to disarm and Israel to withdraw from Gaza. This created an immediate disagreement: neither side wanted to go first. While Hamas wanted to hand its weapons over to the safekeeping of a Palestinian technocratic committee, with the action verified by a third party such as Turkey or Qatar, Israel wanted the weapons to be destroyed.
The Memorandum called for Gaza to be rebuilt, under the oversight of a new civilian government. What it didn’t record is who would pay for the rebuild. Gaza doesn’t have the money to do it. Those who do have the money to invest will want a significant return.
Recent meetings At the end of July, Hamas shook things up by agreeing to disarm in tandem with Israel withdrawing from occupied Gaza. Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu renounced the GPP altogether. This led to a brief flurry of diplomatic activity by three members of Donald Trump’s Board of Peace: Jared Kushner (son-in-law of Donald Trump, UA Special Envoy for Peace), Tony Blair (former UK Prime Minister and deluded political has-been) and Bulgarian diplomat Nickolay Mladenov.
*Kushner, Blair and Mladenov met leaders of Hamas in Egypt. Hamas asked the USA to compel Israel to abide by the Memorandum.
*The following day, the Board of Peace triumvirate met Israeli leaders. Afterwards, Israel claimed that they had persuaded the USA to move closer to their position – i.e, disarmament of Hamas – before reconstruction can begin. It may be that Israel will agree to a partial withdrawal, which could be spun as part of the two actions happening “in tandem”, but which would only be cosmetic, if it actually happened at all.
Netanyahu is believed to have signalled that he would accept the disarmament of Hamas being supervised by a US General. He has also said that he believes he has been granted continued military freedom in Gaza.
The meeting also agreed to establish two working groups. One was to be on disarmament and demilitarisation – an excellent way of prolonging negotiations while taking no practical action. The other was to be on public health issues, such as food aid and sanitation, which affect Gaza but impact Israel. On the ground, Israel is doing its best to hinder food and medical aid coming in and Gazans getting out for medical treatment, so a Working Group sounds like good cover for letting Israel continue.
Associated Press reports that Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israeli Minister of National Security, has called for Israel to carry out “targeted eliminations” of 30-40 people in Gaza per day. “Not just those who pose an immediate threat,” he said. “There are people there who are not worthy of life. They shouldn’t live. They’re not even people.” Trump will not find this an easy position to negotiate with. Sounds like genocide to us.
The meeting was said to have been tense – as is the USA/Israeli relationship at the moment. It seems that Israel had taken umbrage at the USA daring to meet Hamas unilaterally and face-to-face, rather than through intermediaries. Trump took Israel renouncing the GPP as a personal slap in the face. He could easily put pressure on Israel – not least by stopping arms sales, but he won’t do that. His aim is to find a solution which leaves Israel as a US ally in the Middle East, not one which delivers justice for the Palestinians.
Trump may put pressure on Israel to start troop withdrawal so that he can get a visible positive step towards peace before the US November mid-term elections. He has said that Israel should not carry out any more military strikes in Gaza now. However, Israel has elections in October. Netanyahu is under pressure from right wing parties who want a hard line on Gaza if they are to stay in coalition with him. Two working groups sounds like a good way of keeping things on the back burner until Trump and Netanyahu have got through their elections. If they both survive, they can look for a fresh injections of momentum after the polls.
The working groups are perfect compromise for these arrogant men. It is bad news for the Palestinians in Gaza.
●Read more about it: Two Trump “peace plans” shatter in a week Trump clueless as ceasefires break around him