IT’S A colossal victory for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which has won a landslide victory in the first General Election since the 2024 uprising sent Sheikh Hasina to exile in India and her Awami League party into the political wilderness.
BNP Chair Tarique Rahman is expected to be sworn in as Prime Minister on 17th February, having secured enough votes to form a Government. At the time of writing, the BNP has 209 seats in the 350-seat Parliament, with its electoral partners adding a further three. The largest opposition party, Jammaat-e-Islami, has 68 seats, with its electoral partners securing nine seats.
Turnout has been reported as 60%. Only 300 seats are directly elected, with a further 50 being filled by the parties on the basis of proportional representation. Winning the election may soon seem to have been the easy bit. Now Rahman will have to govern the world’s eighth most populous country.
Political groups This General Election is being hailed as the first democratic election in Bangladesh for a generation. The caretaker regime which took office in 2024, after the uprising, went ahead with a General Election within a reasonable time frame – which is not something “caretaker” governments across the world will do. But the road through the new political landscape will still be rocky.
The Awami League is now banned and could not take part in this election. In some ways it had this one coming, as it had effectively banned the BNP from previous elections in the country as their Leader, Sheikh Hasina, became every more autocratic. Speaking from exile in India, she condemned the election as a “carefully planned political farce” and called for the result to be cancelled, with a new election being held in which the Awami League could participate.
With its Leader having departed the country, the Awami League has lost its political relevance and traction. It does still have strong supporters, many of them with grudges over the driving out of Sheikh Hasina. If the BNP Government does not deliver for the people, they may try to rally opposition to it.
This leaves the UK ruling Labour Party in an interesting position. In 2012, East London’s former and unlamented MP Jim Fitzpatrick told the House of Commons that the Awami League was Labour’s “sister organisation” in Bangladesh. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is thought to have met Sheikh Hasina many times. The MP of the constituency next to his is Hasina’s own niece, Tulip Siddiq. She was tried, in absentia, on corruption charges in Bangladesh in connection with property and land transactions valued at nearly £4 billion – charges which she denied. She was convicted last year and sentenced to two years in prison and a modest fine.
The Jammaat-e-Islami party, with 77 seats, will form the opposition in Parliament. Its leader, Shafiqur Rahman, promised that the Party would play a constructive role there. If the BNP Government is popular, Jamaat may find its support is squeezed as it has no alternative way to offer.
The National Citizen Party (NCP) was formed by young activists, including many students, who led the uprising which saw off Sheikh Hasina. They joined in the election as part of a Jamaat-led alliance – a move which was controversial among its supporters. They contested 30 seats and won just six of them. This means that the youth who led the uprising have no real political home at the moment. If the BNP Government falters, they may well raise the voices in opposition once more.
Election promises
Tarique Rahman’s manifesto pledged to boost the economy, including by securing foreign investment and ending corruption, as well as giving financial help to poor families. It is thought that Rahman will be looking for overseas investment in Bangladesh’s garment trade, which generates around 80% of export earnings but is known for having very low pay and poor working conditions. If new investment doesn’t address those problems, many workers will be disappointed. Very few sectors in Bangladesh offer graduate jobs: that leaves many students, including veterans of the uprising, looking for graduate jobs that do not involve pedalling a sewing machine – a further potential cause of discontent.
Rahman also pledged to limit any one individual being Prime Minister for longer than ten years. This alone will not end the family dynasty habit in Bangladesh. He was not complacent in victory: he did not let the BNP hold self-indulgent victory celebrations, urging supporters to pray for the country at Friday prayers, which is a good first sign that he does intend to bring a new politics to the country. He will have to develop the BNP and allow other leaders to rise to the top if, in due course, there is to be a transition to meritocracy.
Women Women played a prominent part in the student uprising that topped Sheikh Hasina, but they were much less prominent in the election campaign a year later. The BNP had just ten female candidates. Two of the NCP’s 30 candidates were women. Jamaat-e-Islami had no women candidates. It is thought that the number of women in the new Parliament will not reach double figures.
Around the world Many countries have welcomed the election result.
India: Prime Minister Narenda Modi said he had phoned Rahman and tweeted, “I conveyed my best wishes and support in his endeavours to fulfil the aspirations of the people of Bangladesh.” Oops: one of those aspirations may be a request to return Sheikh Hasina from exile in India to face charges of ordering state forces to use violence to quell the student-led uprising in 2024.
USA: the US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Brent T. Christensen, tweeted: “The United States looks forward to working with you to achieve shared goals of prosperity and security for both our countries.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed that sentiment, tweeting “The United States looks forward to working with the newly elected government to advance prosperity and the security of the region.” Be afraid, Bangladesh, be very afraid. Any working with the USA will be on their terms, not yours.
China: The Chinese Embassy in Dhaka congratulated the people of Bangladesh on the “smooth and successful” election, adding that they looked forward to writing new chapters of China-Bangladesh relations. That won’t please the USA, of course.
Recent General Elections have been held in an atmosphere of tension and violence. For now, the people of Bangladesh seem to be happy. Muhammad Yunus, Leader of the interim Government summed up the mood on the streets as “like Eid”. He added, “We are creating a new Bangladesh.” Inshallah to that.
●Read more about it: London Bangla Press Club condemns violence in Bangladesh Starmer can’t undo own goal on Bangladeshis