The historic triumph: analysing Trump’s 2024 victory

By Mak Kunwar

In a stunning turn of events, Donald Trump, a convicted felon, has made history by reclaiming the US presidency in 2024, defying all odds and reshaping the political landscape. This analysis delves into the key factors that contributed to his win and explores its implications for the future of the USA and the world.

●Economic concerns: the driving force
Economic dissatisfaction was a significant driver behind Trump’s victory. Despite a growing economy and low unemployment rates, many voters felt financially worse off compared to four years ago. Nearly half of all voters expressed this sentiment.

Trump’s promises of tax reforms, job creation and economic stability resonated strongly with these voters, highlighting a critical disconnect between reported economic growth under the Democrats and voter sentiment. “I voted for Trump because I feel like my financial situation has deteriorated over the past few years,” said John Doe, a factory worker from Ohio.

●Desire for change: a crucial role
Voters’ desire for change played a crucial role in Trump’s victory. Many were dissatisfied with the current state of the country and the performance of the incumbent Administration. Trump’s campaign successfully tapped into this sentiment, with a majority of voters prioritising leadership and the ability to bring about needed change. His message of restoring America’s greatness and addressing the perceived failures of the previous Administration resonated with a broad spectrum of the electorate.

●Shifts in voter demographics
Trump’s ability to attract a diverse range of voters was pivotal to his success. Key shifts in voter demographics included the following.

•Educated Class: Trump saw increased support among college-educated voters, drawn by his economic policies and leadership qualities. His promises of tax reforms and job creation appealed to many educated professionals concerned about economic stability and growth.

•White voters: Strong support continued among white voters, particularly in suburban and rural areas. His stance on economic issues, coupled with promises to reduce taxes and deregulate industries, found favour with many white voters who felt these policies would benefit their communities.

•Black and Hispanic voters: Trump’s reaching out to Black and Hispanic communities showed notable improvements. His campaign’s focus on economic empowerment, criminal justice reform, and educational opportunities resonated with many voters in these groups. Additionally, his efforts to address unemployment and support small businesses in minority communities were well received.

•Immigrant communities: Despite his controversial immigration policies, Trump managed to gain support from certain immigrant communities. His emphasis on economic opportunities and job creation appealed to immigrants who prioritised economic stability and growth over other issues. His Administration’s efforts to streamline legal immigration processes also garnered some support.

•Gen Z voters: While Gen Z voters predominantly supported Kamala Harris, Trump’s reaching out to young men and his focus on economic issues helped him gain some traction within this demographic. His appearances on popular podcasts and social media platforms aimed at younger audiences played a role in this shift.

•Muslim communities: The Israel-Palestine conflict had a significant impact on Muslim voters. Many felt that the Biden-Harris Administration was complicit in what they perceived as genocide in Gaza. This led to a shift in support towards Trump, who, despite his controversial policies, promised to work towards peace in the Middle East and addressed their concerns more directly. Trump’s reach efforts to reach out, including meeting with Muslim leaders and communities, also played a role in gaining their support.

●Building a Diverse Coalition
Despite rhetoric to charge his base, Trump’s 2024 campaign messaging emphasised unity and inclusivity, addressing concerns of a broader range of demographics. His strategy included targeted outreach, economic focus, and addressing social issues, helping him build a diverse coalition.

●The economic disconnect and Latino voter shift
A unique angle to explore is the significant shift in Latino voter support and the economic disconnect felt by many people in the USA. Despite positive economic indicators, the perception of economic hardship drove many voters to support Trump, highlighting a broader realignment in voter demographics.

●Historic firsts: a convicted felon and a comeback
Trump’s victory is historic not only because he is the first convicted felon to be elected president but also because he is only the second president to win after losing a previous election. This unprecedented scenario adds a complex layer to his victory, reflecting a deeply divided electorate and the resilience of his political base.

●The Musk factor: social media and influence
Elon Musk’s ownership of X (formerly Twitter) played a notable role in the 2024 election. Musk’s platform, known for its controversial approach to content moderation and free speech, became a battleground for political discourse. His influence on the platform, including changes to the “like” button and the introduction of new features, helped shape public opinion and mobilise voters.

Musk’s vision for X as a hub for financial transactions and a broader social media ecosystem also intersected with Trump’s campaign strategies. The platform’s reach and Musk’s personal endorsements provided Trump with a significant advantage in digital campaigning and voter engagement. Notably, Musk’s influence was particularly impactful in swing states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan, where his endorsements and platform changes helped sway undecided voters and amplify pro-Trump messaging.

●The role of Amish voters in Pennsylvania
Scott Presler played a significant role in mobilizing new Amish voters in Pennsylvania, which greatly helped Trump flip the state in his favour. Presler’s efforts included targeted outreach through billboards, ads, door-to-door canvassing and community meetings, emphasising GOP talking points like smaller government, less regulation and religious freedom.

●Navigating international relations
Trump’s foreign policy approach has been marked by a mix of co-operation and tension with various global partners:

•China: Trump’s proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports pose significant economic threats, impacting global trade dynamics. This move is expected to further strain US-China relations, already tense due to ongoing trade disputes and geopolitical rivalries.

•South Asia: The strategic dynamics in South Asia have been influenced by Trump’s relationships with key countries:

•India: The strategic partnership between the US and India remains crucial, especially in balancing ties with Russia. Trump’s transactional approach has allowed India to maintain its strategic autonomy while co-operating with the US on various fronts, including defence and technology.

•Pakistan: Trump’s positive relationship with former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan in his previous term and support from influential Pakistani Americans played a role in his victory. This dynamic underscore the complex interplay between US domestic politics and international relations, particularly in South Asia.

•Bangladesh: Trump’s presidency is expected to bring a nuanced approach to Bangladesh. While not a high priority, his Administration’s stance could influence Bangladesh’s political landscape, especially with the recent ousting of Sheikh Hasina and the rise of an interim government. The US’s focus on regional stability and economic opportunities may shape future relations.

•Middle East: Trump’s strong support for Israel and efforts to broker peace deals between Israel and Arab countries have solidified his position in the region. His policies, including moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, have garnered significant support from pro-Israel voters.

•EU Allies and the UK: Trump’s foreign policy towards EU allies and the UK has been marked by a mix of co-operation and tension. His view of NATO as a protection racket and skepticism about support for Ukraine have created concerns among European allies. However, his presidency might also spur increased defence spending and closer co-operation among European nations.

●Implications for the future
Under Trump’s leadership, expect continued focus on economic growth, traditional values and a strong foreign policy stance. His victory underscores a critical disconnect between economic indicators and voter sentiment, with significant shifts in voter demographics that could have lasting implications for future elections.

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