Britain: betrayed

The official declaration of the referendum result came at 7.20am. Buckle your seatbelt, find a helmet, hide under the kitchen table – it’s going to be a very rough ride. Nigel Farage is delighted. Boris Johnson is delighted. Michael Gove is delighted. The result has been welcomed by the Front Nationale (the French ultra right wing party) and by the totally bonkers right wing racist party in Holland. That should make it immediately clear what trouble we are in. The Front Nationale leader, Marine Le Pen, has quickly called for a referendum to be held in France, showing how much this UK decision has strengthened the ultra-right across Europe.

The vote was 17,410,742 (51.9%) in favour of leaving and 16,141,241 (48.1%) in favour of remaining in the EU. The result was patchy, with Wales and England voting more heavily in favour of leaving while Scotland and London favoured remaining. The Scottish Parliament is now under pressure to hold a second referendum on independence, now there is such clear evidence that the Westminster Government cannot deliver the people’s wishes – as First Minister Nicola Sturgeon MSP was quick to acknowledge on Friday morning. With so many parts of England and Wales having voted “leave” to stop immigration, we are in for an increase in racist attacks in those areas.

In the short term, there may be a slight, temporary boost to the economy as the drop in the value of the £ sterling (the biggest since the currency began to float in 1972) as it will make UK exports cheaper. That will soon be overtaken as the UK loses its credit rating and international companies cease new investment in the UK and then go on to move their business over to the European mainland. The UK will look for new trading partners and find that there are few countries looking to take on new imports and this will push the UK economy into even more troubled waters. The FTSE opened on Friday morning 1.4% down and plummeted to 7% down within the first hour: it’s not likely to go up again any time soon.

Tower Hamlets, which relies extensively on the catering trade and tourism for its economic health, will be under severe pressure as renewed economic downturn sees fewer Londoners able to eat out and fewer tourists coming to the UK at all. Worse: the international banks and finance companies based in Canary Wharf and in the City will be looking for new homes: the effect on London’s economy, which relied (unwisely) on speculative development, could be catastrophic.

The UK is now entering a phase of tremendous political upheaval. Cameron’s gamble has not come off. His promise of a referendum was intended to stop Conservative voters backing UKIP so the Tories could win a majority government. He now has to pay the price of that victory.

Instead of blaming Cameron, however, the press is rushing to blame the Labour Party – who never called for a referendum at all. The media have been quick to say that the “leave” vote in the Midlands and Wales shows that Labour heartlands are no longer supporting the Party, so Jeremy Corbyn must go. “Jeremy Corbyn must go” is their knee-jerk reaction to virtually any event – but it flies in the face of the evidence.

London was Labour’s heartland in this May’s elections, and it voted “remain”. The Midlands are full of marginal seats. Nonetheless, the press was quoting two (two!) anonymous “senior Labour figures” who said Corbyn should go. How tiresome. Corbyn himself gave a much more intelligent response, pointing out that much of the “leave” vote came from people who are tired of austerity and blame it on immigration.

David Cameron responded to the result by insisting that the economy is strong (rubbish, but he could hardly say anything else) and that UK citizens living in EU member states will not see any change in their circumstances immediately, which they won’t – unless you count the fact that they need to prepare now for massive change in two years time.

Somewhat more significantly, he has announced his intention to resign as Prime Minister. He has expressed this as an intention to remain in post for a while in order to stabilise the economy but stated that there should be a new Leader in place before the Conservative Party Conference in October – and, therefore, a new Prime Minister in office who can implement the “leave” decision. Prepare for Prime Minister Boris, then.

The “leave” campaign never had a script. They had sound bites, but no real plan. Now they are trying to work out whether to give notice of leaving now, which would start formal negotiations, or to indulge in informal negotiations and give notice once the broad exit plan was clear. They can dream – but it is not certain that EU member states would want to bother with informal negotiations. They had also called on him not to resign – but that was never a realistic call. They will now have to deal with negotiating some sort of future for Britain at the same time as they run the country. Be, as we so often say, afraid.

Cameron’s decision means that the new Prime Minister will be the one to decide when to give the notice. Cameron has indicated that the governments of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should be involved in negotiations, but he cannot bind the new Prime Minister to that pledge, of course.

However long it takes, once the terms of the separation have been set, however long that takes, the divorce will be take effect. Vast amounts of time will be swallowed up as civil servants who should be spending their time running the country will now have to trawl through 40 years of laws which will no longer apply in order to draft new ones for the UK to adopt. Decisions on what kind of human rights and employment rights laws the UK adopts will be taken by a right wing majority Tory Government: that’s not good news. The “leave” voters in Wales and the Midlands may not have realised that one of the first effects of their vote that they will experience is not the disappearance of the local Polish plumber but a reduction in their own rights to annual paid leave and a maximum working week.

The hard right of the Tory Party have had their way by stealth. It’s up to Labour to promote an inspiring alternative.

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