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IT’S ESCALATION. That is how US President Donald Trump is going to deal with the collapse of peace talks with Iran. We say “peace talks” – but as Trump gave them a single day, they were more a case of “surrender talks”.
Iran did not give in to every demand the USA made, and Trump gave up on them. Observers speculated on what his Plan B was. Trump had been forced into holding a ceasefire and attending talks because of the political and financial costs of his war of choice. It was widely hoped that he would return to the talks – after all, the 2016 peace agreement with Iran had taken 18 months to negotiate. It was not to be.
Trump has decided to open the Strait of Hormuz himself, with the assistance of hundreds of US troops whom he has decided to bring closer to Iran so that they are an easier target. He calls this action a “blockade of Iranian ports”.
US ships will not impede the freedom of mariners, but it will stop hostile vessels from exiting the Strait. Iran was previously controlling which ships left the Strait – allowing through its own ships, those of nations friendly to it, and ships that were prepared to pay. Now US will play the same game. Trump, who seems to think that this war on Iran is not real life but is actually a giant video game, promises that, “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”
The US faces a hard task. Iran is believed to have mined parts of the Strait, but no one, except Iran, knows where those mines have been laid. Trump is sending US minesweepers to clear them up: but it could be years before ships trust that the Strait is safe. Insurers are not likely to insure vessels on the basis that Trump has put some minesweepers in the Strait, and until insurers are happy, we are not going to see the resumption of normal waterbourne traffic.
Trump claims that other countries will support his blockade, but he has not mentioned which countries this will be. We know that the UK is not going to help the blockade. Even the Pope has condemned it. Lawyers have pointed out that the US blockade could be another example of the USA breaking international law. This is unlikely to influence Trump, who had previously declared that the only law he respects is what is in his own head (euch). There is also the issue of whether Trump’s blockade violates the current ceasefire – ending the precondition for talks being resumed.
A blockade could hurt Iran in that it would prevent Iran’s shipping going through the Strait of Hormuz – cutting off Iran’s income stream. It may also be Trump’s way of putting pressure on Iran, a country he clearly does not understand, to surrender. It could also be a way to draw other western countries into the war: Trump has already claimed that NATO has promised help to open the Strait.
Trump’s blockade is little more than piracy on the high seas. Perhaps the best comment on the blockade plan came from Senator Mark Warner, a Democrat from Virginia, who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee. He told CNN, “I don’t understand how blockading the strait is going to somehow push the Iranians into opening it”. He needs to repeat that comment, more loudly. This is a great opportunity for the Democrats to show Trump up for the dangerous buffoon that he is.
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