Rebel Labour MPs: an endgame short of a checkmate

As Angela Eagle and Owen “Owen Who?” Smith start the week by squaring up in a battle for support from fellow rebels, we might find out whether Angela Eagle is a genuine candidate or just a stalking horse to let Owen Smith go forward into the contest. Smith would be able to claim that he had clean hands because he didn’t challenge Corby but only responded to a leadership contest that was already underway.

However, while the focus is on who will be the candidate and who will be allowed to vote for them, the rebels seem to be paying little attention to planning their endgame – and Sir John Chilcot has already warned where that can lead.

The rebels appear to have considered what to do if Corbyn wins again, because there have been reports in the press for weeks indicating that they have been holding various meetings about setting up a new party. The Daily Mail is reporting this weekend that Stephen Kinnock, son of former Labour Party Leader and General Election loser Neil Kinnock has been in discussions with the current Labour Party’s top 50 financial donors and former Liberal Party Leader Paddy Ashdown – seeking money and company respectively. Kinnock and Ashdown have both denied they were talking about setting up a new political party, but the meeting came just after Ashdown called for politicians from different parties to work together on a common platform. There have been no reports that Corbyn has been exploring alternative structures, so it seems that the rebels are more prepared to jump ship if they lose than Corbyn is.

While the rebels may be preparing to lose, there is less evidence that they would know what to do if they won. They have done their best to restrict the number of party members and supporters who can vote in the hope of cutting down Corbyn’s vote – which has left the Party looking mean and devious. However, if one of the rebels won the leadership they would be able to command the support of the majority of Labour MPs – but clearly not of the Labour Party. What would they do about that?

The Labour Party now has around 600,000 members – unprecedented for any political party in the UK. That’s around 1,000 members per constituency, on average. Between 60% to 70% of them will be Corbyn supporters – and active. They will be taking a close interest in their local issues and pushing their MPs to support Corbynlike policies. And even if some of them are kept out of having a vote in the leadership elections, they are all now on track to having a vote in the selection of their next Labour parliamentary candidate.

Alongside them will be the affiliated trade unions, which have stood by Corbyn. They, too, will be taking policies to Labour’s policy-making bodies which the rebels will find very hard to support.

The rebels may be hoping that, in the event of defeat, the pro-Corbyn members will just pack up and leave. Why should they? Similarly, the unions are going nowhere. Even if the rebels manage to pull off a paper victory, they are going to be a long way off securing a checkmate.

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